As goes Hungary…

The April edition of Quadrant went to press days before Hungarians re-elected the government of Victor Orban, so John O’Sullivan’s appraisal of the then-looming election in this month’s Asperities column was necessarily speculative.

Orban has one advantage that explains why he is the focus of international attention. Other elections in Europe, notably the Italian election, have shown that there are now four forces in its new politics: Left populists, Left centrists, Right centrists, and Right populists. The Centre-Right has one great potential advantage: the Left’s collapse across Europe has come first. So the Right has been given time to assemble a new coalition. It can woo the disaffected blue-collar vote with a patriotic appeal and wed it to the traditional supporters of the mainstream Right. Orban is the first political leader to do this in a consistent way.

That’s why he’s loved and loathed across Europe—and why his election or rejection will be significant outside Hungary as well as within it.

John’s column, which subscribers enjoyed almost three weeks ago,  has now been lifted from behind our paywall. It should be read in tandem with his post-election update at National Review, available via this link or the one at the foot of this post:

As in other recent elections across Europe, the Left has suffered major losses and is now on the verge of ceasing to function as a standalone political force. Only eight years ago the Hungarian Socialists, supported by a left-liberal coalition partner, were the main governing party. On this occasion the Socialists won 12 percent of the popular vote and 20 seats, and the Democratic Coalition (an imperfect successor to the left-liberal party that has since disbanded) won less than 5 per cent and nine seats.

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