QED

Sympathy for the Devil

Western politicians often claim that the Russian military operation in Ukraine was “unprovoked”, the New York Times’ favourite adjective to describe the Ukrainian War. However, on September 9, 2023, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg committed a gaff, meaning that he accidentally revealed the truth. In testimony to the European Union Parliament, Stoltenberg made clear that it was America’s relentless push to enlarge NATO to Ukraine that was the real cause of the war and it continues to day. Here are Stoltenberg’s revealing words:

“The background was that President Putin declared in autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition not to invite Ukraine. Of course, we didn’t sign that. The Opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO … We rejected that. So, he [went to] war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite”.[1]

For many weeks prior to the Russian invasion, on 24 February 2022, U.S. President Joseph Biden, his Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, and Secretary of State, Antony Blinken were telling the world that the war in Ukraine was imminent.[2]  This was a classic example of warmongering that inevitably increases the likelihood of war. The Biden administration so often repeated this prediction that everyone started to believe that war was inevitable.

President Biden’s irresponsible talk of an imminent Russian attack elevated tensions and was not conducive to achieving a diplomatic resolution of the conflict. More importantly, his statements effectively painted Putin into a corner: if he were to invade, he would prove Biden right, but if he ordered the withdrawal of the Russian troops, Putin would then be described as weak, and it would adversely affect his standing in the volatile domestic Russian political arena.[3]

According to the prevailing Western narrative, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is an insatiable expansionist who invaded Ukraine as unprovoked act of military expansion. “Putin allegedly mistaking himself for Peter the Great, invaded Ukraine to recreate the Russian Empire”. [4]

While this narrative entirely blames the Russian President for the war in Ukraine, the underlying cause of the present conflict lies not necessarily in unbridled Russian expansionism, but primarily in a 30-year history of Western provocations directed at Russia, which began during the dissolution of the Soviet Union and continued until the outbreak of the war. These provocations apparently put Russia in an untenable situation. In his insightful book ‘How the West Brought War to Ukraine’, Dr Benjamin Abelow makes these important considerations:

“Had the United States not pushed NATO to the border of Russia; not deployed nuclear-capable missile launch systems in Romania and planned them for Poland and perhaps elsewhere as well; not contributed to the overthrown of the democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014; not abrogated the ABM treaty and then the intermediate-range nuclear missile treaty, and then disregarded Russian attempts to negotiate a bilateral moratorium on deployments; not conducted live-fire exercises with rockets in Estonia to practice striking targets inside Russia; not coordinated a massive 32-nation military training exercise near Russian territory; not intertwined the U.S. military with that of Ukraine; etc. etc. etc. – had the United States and its NATO allies not done these things, the war in Ukraine probably would not have taken place. And even that is not the end of it. The U.S. government, through its words and actions, may have led Ukrainian leaders, and the Ukrainian people, to adopt intransigent positions toward Russia. Instead of pressing and supporting a negotiated peace in the Donbas between Kiev and pro-Russian autonomists, the United States encouraged strongly nationalist forces in Ukraine. It poured weapons into Ukraine, stepped up military integration and training with the Ukrainian military, refused to renounce plans to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, and may have given the impression to the Ukrainian leaders and people that it might directly go to war with Russia on Ukraine’s behalf”.[5]

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a university professor and director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. He is also president of the U.N. Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the U.N. Broadband Commission for Development. Professor Sachs has been adviser to three United Nations secretaries-general. According to him, “the bloodshed was caused by long-standing Western arrogance and NATO expansion. The West could easily have prevented the catastrophic Ukraine conflict, which had been brewing for many years, by abandoning its many escalatory policies including NATO expansion”[6].

President Putin made one last attempt at diplomacy at the end of 2021, tabling a draft U.S.-NATO Security Agreement to forestall the war. The core of the draft agreement “was an end of NATO enlargement and removal of U.S. missiles near Russia”.[7] The West could have easily ended the conflict early on, as Moscow and Kiev had largely worked out a peace deal during talks in Turkey, which revolved around Ukraine’s neutrality. Russia’s security concerns “were valid and the basis for negotiation”, Professor Sachs says. However, as he also points out,

“Biden rejected negotiations out of a combination of arrogance, hawkishness and profound miscalculation. NATO maintained its position that NATO would not negotiate with Russia regarding NATO enlargement, that in effect, NATO enlargement was none of Russia’s business”.[8]

Why is Ukraine deemed to be so important for the Russians?

First of all, modern Russia as a nation finds its origins in Kievan Rus, founded in the ninth century with its first capital in Novgorod, then in Kiev. The Russian Orthodox religion spread from Ukraine, and even celebrated anti-communist dissidents like Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn insisted that Ukraine is an integral part of Russia. Indeed, for 500 years it was.[9] Precisely for this reason, Henry Kissinger, who served as United States Secretary of State and National Security Advisor under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, advocated that Ukraine “should not be allowed to join NATO”.[10] As Kissinger once pointed out,     

“The West must understand that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country. Russian history began with Kievan-Rus. The Russian religion spread from there. Ukraine has been part of Russia for centuries. The Russian Black Sea Fleet – Russia’s means of projecting power in the Mediterranean – is based in Sevastopol, Crimea (with Ukraine’s longtime agreement)”.[11]

In 1991, Ukraine’s insistence on independence precipitated the collapse of the Soviet Union.[12] With 46 million people, Ukraine is the largest of the states that had split away from the Russian Federation, in 1991. About half of the Ukrainians speak Russian.[13] One of the conflicting points about secession was Crimea’s political status, because two-thirds of its 2.4 million inhabitants are ethnically Russian. The territory, a peninsula jutting out into the Black Sea, has been part of Russia since 1783. It was transferred to Ukraine by then Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954, at a time when no one would imagine that the Soviet Union would ever disappear.[14] President Putin complains about what he calls the Soviet policy of dismembering Russia. This policy caused Russia to lose Crimea, which, in his words, “we won from the Turks, and the Baltic States, where the Russian-speaking population was mistreated.”[15]

The late American diplomat, George Kennan, in a 1998 interview given shortly after the U.S. Senate had approved the first round of NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, warned that this would result in a “new Cold War, probably ending in a hot one”.[16] He predicted that NATO expansion would inevitably provoke a military crisis, after which the proponents of NATO expansion would “say that we always told you that is how the Russians are”.[17] “I think it is a strategic mistake. There is no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anyone else”, Kennan admonished.[18]

Unfortunately, however, since the mid-1990s, successive U.S. administrations have regularly pushed for NATO expansion towards the Russian border.[19] The story begins in 1990 when, as the Soviet Union was coming to an end, Western leaders sought to reunify East and West Germany under the auspices of NATO. This required Moscow to agree to remove its roughly 400,000 troops from East Germany. To appease Moscow, Western leaders communicated the view that NATO would not expand eastward toward the Russian border.[20]

The first round of NATO enlargement in the European continent occurred in 1999. It brought into NATO the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. The second round, in 2004, included Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. In April 2008, a summit held in Bucharest flagged the possible NATO membership of Georgia and Ukraine, which the Russians considered to be a “direct threat” to them.[21] Then, in a June 2021 meeting in Brussels, NATO reaffirmed its commitment: “We reiterate the decision made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance”.[22] According to Dr Abelow,

“Incrementally, in steps small and large, the West has disregarded Russia’s reasonable security concerns, considering them irrelevant, stoking Russian concerns about encirclement and invasion. At the same time, The United States and its European allies have implied that a rational actor would be assuaged by the West’s statements of benign intention: that the weapons, training, and interoperability exercise, not matter who provocative, power, or close to Russia’s borders, are purely defensive and not be feared. In many instances, Western leaders, especially from the United States, have actively disrespected Mr. Putin, sometimes insulting him to his face”.[23]

In late 2013 and early 2014, anti-government protests took place in Kiev’s Independence Square. These protests, which were supported by the U.S. government, were primarily orchestrated by violent provocateurs attempting to overthrow a democratically elected, pro-Russian president. In December 2013, Senator John McCain, then a leading Republican voice on U.S. foreign policy, told leaders of the Ukrainian opposition camped on Kiev’s main square that “Ukraine’s destiny lays in Europe”.[24] When asked by CNN host Candy Crowley, on December 15, 2013, whether it was a good idea to “take Russia on”, Senator McCain replied: 

“There’s no doubt that Ukraine is of vital importance to Putin. I think it was [Henry] Kissinger, I’m not sure, said that Russia, without Ukraine it’s an eastern power, with Ukraine it’s a western power. This is the beginning of Russia, right here in Kiev. So Putin views it as most highly important and he has put pressure on Ukrainians … The word is very clear that he has made certain threats. Whether he would carry them through I don’t know.”[25]

These anti-government protests culminated in a coup in February 2014, in which Ukrainian ultranationalists seized government buildings and forced the democratically elected president to flee the country.[26] Russia correctly realised that the U.S. government was deeply involved – certainly in laying the groundwork for the coup and possibly in fomenting violence.[27]

This was followed by a popular reaction in the country’s east that eventually resulted in Russia’s annexation of the Crimea, but only after a referendum that the United States did not recognise. Crimeans, who mostly speak Russian, overwhelmingly voted to join the Russian Federation. When a referendum favouring secession was successfully held in Crimea in March 1994, it was ruled constitutionally invalid by the Ukrainian Supreme Court. Two fundamental principles were in conflict: the right of self-determination and the inviolability of national territory.[28]

It is important to consider that it was only when the United States installed a radically anti-Russian, pro-NATO regime in Ukraine, in February 2014, that Russia finally took back Crimea, concerned that its Black Sea naval base in Crimea (since 1783) would fall into NATO’s hands. What is more, immediately after Russia took control of Crimea, the United States began a massive program of military aid to Ukraine.[29] In 2017, the U.S. government under the presidency of Donald J. Trump began selling lethal weapons to Ukraine.

This was a change from the 2014-2017 policy, where only non-lethal items were sold, such as various types of technical equipment. The Trump administration described the new sales as “defensive.” Arguably, these categories “offensive” and “defensive” exist only in the eye of the beholder.[30] What is deemed “defensive” by those having these lethal weapons may well be considered “offensive” by the potential targets of these weapons.

What is more, the United States was not the only one to start selling lethal weapons to Ukraine. Despite the fact that Ukraine is not yet a member of NATO, John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, commented:

“Other NATO countries have taken action, sending weapons to Ukraine, training its armed forces and allowing it to participate in joint air and naval exercises. In July 2021, Ukraine and the United States co-hosted a major naval exercise in the Black Sea region, involving navies from 32 countries. Operation Sea Breeze nearly provoked Russia to fire on a British naval destroyer that deliberately entered what Russia considers its territorial waters”.[31]

The Russians had already been humiliated by NATO’s decision to expand the Alliance to include former Warsaw Pact countries. The bombing of Serbia by NATO forces in 1999 underlined the geopolitical marginalisation of Russia, unable to protect its traditional ally. Initially, the then Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, offered moral support to Serbian leader Solobodan Milosevic but avoided making any public statements that could lead to Russia being drawn into the conflict. The bombings changed that because Moscow was outraged by what was perceived as Western aggression. “For the Russians, the Serbs were fellow Slavs who, throughout history, were their allies.”[32]

When considering the 30 years of history just described, one has to ask: How would Washington react if Moscow carried out equivalent military actions near the U.S. territory? For example, how would Washington respond if Moscow established a military alliance with Mexico and then deployed rocket installations 70 miles from the U.S. border? What would the United States do had Russia used these rocket facilities to conduct training exercises to practice destroying military bases inside the United States? Would the American political establishment just happily accept mere verbal assurances from the Russian President that his intentions are benign?[33] Therefore, as Professor Sachs correctly points out,

“The continuing U.S. obsession with NATO enlargement is profoundly irresponsible and hypocritical. The U.S. would object – by means of war, if needed – to being encircled by Russian or military bases in the Western Hemisphere, a point the U.S. has made since the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. Yet the U.S. is blind and deaf to the legitimate security concerns of other countries”.[34]

As for myself, I entirely agree with Professor Sachs that this continuing U.S. obsession with NATO enlargement is “profoundly irresponsible and hypocritical”. Although successive U.S. administrations have been trying to turn Ukraine into another American bulwark, the United States would never tolerate Canada or Mexico asking to join a military alliance with Russia and allowing weapons of mass destruction to be installed within its borders. If Russia had taken equivalent actions – say, by placing its military forces in Mexico – Washington would have reacted and even possibly started a war, justifying this as a defensive response to the military invasion of a foreign power.

When viewed through this lens, it appears to me that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not a reflection of a malevolent Russian leader’s unbridled expansionism, but primarily a reaction to misguided Western policies and an attempt to re-establish a zone around Russia’s western border free of offensive threats from the U.S. and its European allies.[35] As noted by Professor Mearsheimer,

“The United States does not tolerate distant great powers deploying military forces anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, much less on its borders. Image the outrage in Washington if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it. Logic aside, Russian leaders have told their Western counterparts on many occasions that they consider NATO expansion into Georgia and Ukraine unacceptable, along with any effort to turn those countries against Russia – a message that the 2008 Russian-Georgian war also made crystal clear”.[36]

To repeat, Russia went to war primarily to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. Why does Russia oppose NATO enlargement? Professor Sachs provides the answer:

“For the simple reason that Russia does not accept the US. Military on its 2,300 km border with Ukraine in the Black Sea region. Russia does not appreciate the US placement of Aegis missiles in Poland and Romania after the U.S. unilaterally abandoned the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty. Russia does not welcome the fact that the U.S. engaged in no fewer than 70 regime change operations during the Cold War (1947-1989), and countless more since, including in Serbia, Afghanistan, Georgia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Venezuela, and Ukraine. Nor does Russia like the fact that many leading U.S. politicians actively advocated the destruction of Russia under the banner of “Decolonizing Russia”. That would be like Russia calling for the removal of Texas, California, Hawaii, the conquered Indian lands, and much else, from the United States”.[37] 

In this sense, it is reasonable to assert that Ukraine is the political, geographical, and diplomatic equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis in reverse.[38] In 1962, the world faced a similarly dangerous situation, when, during the Cold War, the Soviets installed nuclear missiles in Cuba – a neighboring country to the United States. Faced with that looming threat, the then American President, John F. Kennedy, ordered the naval blockade of the island, lifted only when the Soviet Union withdrew their missiles from Cuba.

Just as the United States did not accept, in 1962, the Soviet threat along its border, in this new kind of ‘Cold War’, the Russians are unwilling to have a U.S. military presence at his country’s doorsteps and demand the reversal of NATO’s expansionist policy.  And now the Russians sense that NATO has dangerously moved right up to their border, by attempting to turn Ukraine effectively into a de facto member of this U.S. military alliance.

This goes without saying that the President Putin made one last attempt at diplomacy at the end of 2021, tabling a draft U.S.-NATO Security Agreement to forestall the war. The core of the draft agreement “was an end of NATO enlargement and removal of U.S. missiles near Russia”. His security concerns “were valid and the basis for negotiation”. However, “Biden rejected negotiations out of a combination of arrogance, hawkishness and profound miscalculation. NATO maintained its poo that NATO would not negotiate with Russia regarding NATO enlargement, that in effect, NATO enlargement was none of Russia’s business”, Professor Sachs says.[39]

As can be seen, the prevailing narrative of “unprovoked” Russian aggression miserably fails to consider the role that successive U.S. administrations have played in ultimately provoking this ongoing war in Ukraine. Arguably, this war will only end when the U.S. government acknowledges that NATO enlargement to Ukraine means war with Russia at the expanse of Ukraine’s total destruction.[40] As a matter of fact, even the Ukrainian government under Volodymyr Zelensky previously acknowledged that the quest for NATO enlargement meant imminent war with Russia. Oleksiy Arestovych, former advised to the Office of the President of Ukraine under Zelensky, once declared that “with a 99.9 per cent probability, or price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia”.[41]

To conclude, Ukraine’s neutrality could have avoided the war, and remains key to peace.[42] Ukraine would need to renounce its NATO aspirations and be turned into a buffer zone between Russia on one side and NATO on the other. Alternatively, the war would come to an end if President Biden announced that the U.S. and its European allies no longer desire to see Ukraine ever joining NATO.[43] And yet, Ukraine continues to be destroyed due primarily to the arrogance of the American Government, ‘providing again Henry Kissinger’s adage that to be America’s enemy is dangerous, while to be its friend is fatal”.[44] As British author and journalist Peter Hitchens has pointed out: “We’ve used Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia. Ukraine is the victim of our militancy. We’ve done the shouting, they get bombed”.[45]

Be that as it may, one simple fact remains undeniable: Ukraine’s neutrality could have avoided the war, and remains key to peace.[46]

 

Augusto Zimmermann is Professor and Head of Law at Sheridan Institute of Higher Education. He is a former Associate Dean, Research, at Murdoch Law School. During his time at Murdoch, Dr Zimmermann was awarded the University’s Vice Chancellor’s Award for Excellence in Research in 2012. He is also a former Commissioner with the Law Reform Commission of Western Australia (2012-2017). Dr Zimmermann has been included in ‘Policy Experts’ – the Heritage Foundation’s directory for locating knowledgeable authorities and leading policy institutes actively involved in a broad range of public policy issues, both in the United States and worldwide.

 

[1] ‘NATO Chief: NATO Expansion Caused Russian Invasion’, Consortium News, 9 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/09/nato-chief-nato-expansion-caused-russian-invasion/

[2] ‘Joe Biden is Certain: Russia is Preparing to Invade Ukraine’, Novinite.com, February 19, 2022, at https://www.novinite.com/articles/213815/Joe+Biden+is+Certain%3A+Russia+is+Preparing+to+Invade+Ukraine. See also: Farrah Tomazin, ‘Biden Convinced Putin Will Invade Ukraine, Target Kyiv’, Sydney Morning Herald, February 19, 2022, at https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russian-backed-rebels-evacuate-east-ukraine-residents-20220219-p59xw3.html.

[3] Gabriël Moens and Augusto Zimmermann, ‘The US Administration’s Ukrainian War Mongering’, The Epoch Times, February 20, 2022, at https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-u-s-administrations-ukrainian-war-mongering_4290843.html.

[4] ‘Jeffrey Sachs blames US ‘irresponsibility’ for Ukraine crisis’, Azerbaycan24, 15 June 2024, at https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/jeffrey-sachs-blames-us-irresponsibility-for-ukraine-crisis/

[5] Benjamin Abelow, How the West Brought War to Ukraine (Siland Press, 2022) 58.

[6] ‘Jeffrey Sachs blames US ‘irresponsibility’ for Ukraine crisis’, Azerbaycan24, 15 June 2024, at https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/jeffrey-sachs-blames-us-irresponsibility-for-ukraine-crisis/

[7] Ibid.

[8] Jeffrey Sachs, ‘NATO Expansion and Ukraine’s Destruction’, Consortium News, 21 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/

[9] Jonathan Power, ‘Ukraine Should Have a Policy of ‘Non-Involvement with NATO’, Opined Zbigniew Brzezinski’, IDN – InDepthNews, 26 February 2022, at https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/opinion/5106-ukraine-should-have-a-policy-of-non-involvement-with-nato-opined-zbigniew-brzezinski.

[10] Ibid.

[11] Ibid.

[12] Philip Short, Putin: His Life and Times (The Bodley Head, 2022) 230.

[13] Peter Rutland, ‘An Unnecessary War: The Geopolitical Roots of the Ukraine Crisis’, Wesleyan University, April 9, 2015, at http://prutland.faculty.wesleyan.edu/files/2015/07/Geopolitics-and-the-Ukraine-crisis.pdf.

[14] Ibid.

[15] Ibid. 231.

[16] Ibid.

[17] John J. Mearsheimer, ‘Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault’, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2014, 8.

[18] Ibid. 7.

[19] Ibid. 2.

[20] Benjamin Abelow, How the West Brought War to Ukraine (Siland Press, 2022)

[21] John J. Mearsheimer, ‘Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault’, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2014, 3.

[22] ‘Brussels Summit Communiqué’, Issued by Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Brussels, 14 June 2021, para. 69. at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.html

[23] Benjamin Abelow, How the West Brought War to Ukraine (Siland Press, 2022) 52.

[24] ‘John McCain Tells Ukraine Protesters: ‘We are here to support your just cause’’, The Guardian, December 16, 2013, at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/15/john-mccain-ukraine-protests-support-just-cause.

[25] Ibid.

[26] Benjamin Abelow, How the West Brought War to Ukraine (Siland Press, 2022) 15.

[27] Ibid. 16.

[28] Philip Short, Putin: His Life and Times (The Bodley Head, 2022) 230.

[29] Benjamin Abelow, How the West Brought War to Ukraine (Siland Press, 2022) 19.

[30] Ibid. 21.

[31] John Mearsheimer, “Why the West is Principally Responsible for the Ukrainian Crisis’, The Economist, 19 March 2022, at https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/11/john-mearsheimer-on-why-the-west-is-principally-responsible-for-the-ukrainian-crisis

[32] Philip Short, Putin: His Life and Times (The Bodley Head, 2022) 272.

[33] Benjamin Abelow, How the West Brought War to Ukraine (Siland Press, 2022) 25.

[34] Jeffrey Sachs, ‘NATO Expansion and Ukraine’s Destruction’, Consortium News, 21 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/

[35] Benjamin Abelow, How the West Brought War to Ukraine (Siland Press, 2022) 2. 

[36] John J. Mearsheimer, ‘Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault’, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2014, 5-6.

[37] Jeffrey Sachs, ‘NATO Expansion and Ukraine’s Destruction’, Consortium News, 21 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/

[38] Scott Lively, ‘Ukraine: Part of Biden’s Great Collapse before ‘Great Reset’’, WND News Center, February 24, 2022, at https://www.wndnewscenter.org/ukraine-part-of-bidens-great-collapse-before-great-reset/.

[39] Jeffrey Sachs, ‘NATO Expansion and Ukraine’s Destruction’, Consortium News, 21 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/

[40] Ibid.

[41] Jeffrey Sachs, ‘NATO Expansion and Ukraine’s Destruction’, Consortium News, 21 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/

[42] Ibid.

[43] Jonathan Power, ‘Ukraine Should Have a Policy of ‘Non-Involvement with NATO’, Opined Zbigniew Brzezinski’, IDN – InDepthNews, 26 February 2022, at https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/opinion/5106-ukraine-should-have-a-policy-of-non-involvement-with-nato-opined-zbigniew-brzezinski.

[44] Jeffrey Sachs, ‘NATO Expansion and Ukraine’s Destruction’, Consortium News, 21 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/

[45] ‘Peter Hitchens: “We’ve used Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia’, YouTube, February 28, 2022, at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvmddazUW3I.

[46] Jeffrey Sachs, ‘NATO Expansion and Ukraine’s Destruction’, Consortium News, 21 September 2023, at https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/

44 thoughts on “Sympathy for the Devil

  • Peter Marriott says:

    Thanks Augusto, good descriptive piece more or less confirming my own original thoughts on it….this war could and should have been averted before it even started, via the time honoured diplomatic way of real statesmen…..signed bilateral agreements.

    • Brian Boru says:

      Hi Peter, were you thinking of something like the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of 1984?

      • Andrew L Urban says:

        Firstly, the Budapest Memorandum was signed in 1994 not 1984. Secondly, I humbly beg to differ with all the great minds about NATO being a provocation to Russia. It is a defense pact.

        • Brian Boru says:

          You are correct Andrew, it was 1994, thanks. I second your comment about NATO.

        • jim brough says:

          Its all about Empire to sustain the old Russian soviet which dealt so stupidly with the people of the Ukraine. Its about making Russia great again. and bugger the cost in lives and infrastructure. Putin let loose the dogs of war and Hamas has done the same.

        • steve1 says:

          ‘Defence’ seems to mean something different these days. As the fictional Lee Child character (Jack Reacher) occasionally asserts, sometimes it’s best to get your retaliation in first.

          BTW – In what sense is a missile silo a defence?

          • Brian Boru says:

            Encyclopedia Britannica defines “deterrence” as “the policy of developing a lot of military power so that other countries will not attack your county”.

  • Botswana O'Hooligan says:

    Thanks Professor Zimmermann, probably about the only “thank you” will get for your article since we Westerners have been successfully brainwashed ever since the USA became dominant and deposed the UK as the leading World Power by sending it broke with the lend lease loan only finally repaid in full by 2006.
    As you so rightly quote, the West (USA) has pressed and pressed Russia, and had Russia or China done that close to the borders of the USA all hell would break loose as it did in the Cuban incident. Probably the bottom line is one of World domination by the USA and we must remember the vast untapped wealth of the Russian Federation as far as oil, gas, other minerals, timber, and grain production is concerned, and thank goodness that we are handy as a giant and compliant base militarily at the foot of Asia for the USA and don’t need overthrowing “just yet.”
    Another consideration could be one of –would a Putin replacement be better or worse for Russian Western relationships– and of course we must remember what happened to Napoleon and what happened at Stalingrad whilst praying for a Republican President after the November elections.

  • Bron says:

    Botswana O’Hooligan
    Thanks Augusto. Thats three “thank you”s in a row. Nothing personal,
    Botswana, but you are beginning to ramble in your comments. Perhaps you could get your wife to proof read.
    Putin is a cold-blooded psychopathic murderer. Watching him make the sign of the cross makes me want to vomit. Justifying his actions regarding Ukraine on the basis of history is clutching at straws. He is just a thug.

  • Podargus says:

    More Putin apologetics. Similar drivel was written about Hitler in the 1930s.
    In amongst all the long winded rationalization in this article I have failed to find one mention of what the people of Ukraine want and are obviously prepared to fight for – independence.
    It is all about what Russia (under Putin) wants.
    Zimmermann is a lawyer of the academic variety with the associated narrow minded arrogance. It seems that his grasp of history is minimal, especially East European history. At a stretch Russia East of the Urals could be thought a part of Europe. But throughout its history it has behaved like an Asian power. Considering it was part of the Mongol empire for several hundred years that may be a partial explanation.
    Come to think of it, Putin has a certain Mongoloid caste of features.

  • Feiko Bouman says:

    Thank you Augusto and Quadrant for publishing.
    An excellent well-sourced summary grounded in fact and reality. A timely antidote to the overwhelming mindless on-going propaganda generated by, especially, devious US ” masters-of-the-universe ” ignorant of limits and the fundamentals of the changing new multi-polar world order.

  • Occidental says:

    The problem with this article is it seeks to explain Putins actions by means of geopolitical drivers as opposed to the vagaries and impulses of a single man. If the invasion is due to the reasons set out herein where are the Russian complaints from its public, academics and commentators (other than Putin or his inner circle) prior to the invasion? If a country is being backed into a position of weakness, or perceives threat, then it’s people, academics citizens and politicians would be sounding the alarm. Prior to the invasion there was nothing. Juxtapose Russian pre invasion commentary about NATO and the West, with current Australian commentary about China. Our government says almost nothin, but the public is having a lot to say.
    .
    People like Merschiemer, Hitchens, and all other western talking heads (including the author) are merely ventilating their own theories. They are quoting each other but not Russians. In fact what we had in the 20 years prior to the invasion, were Russians emigrating, buying football clubs and assets, and holidaying in the West. Rather than fearing the west they were slowly becoming more and more western. The Russian public and institutions were well aware that Europe NATO and even th US had no intent to invade or attack Russian sovereignty. This article is merely a trend of academics pretending to be intelligent by playing devils advocate.
    .
    It also contains the usual furphys such as “contributed to the overthrow of the democratically elected Ukrainian government in 2014”, what does this mean? Does it mean the west had operatives in Kyiv pulling the strings, or does it mean western authors opining on the inherent benefits of capitalism or a market economy for Ukraine. We dont know it is just inserted as if it is a given fact. Another usual suspect is NATO enlargement. What the author should have said is that every central european country that joined NATO, begged to join. One could reasonably ask why?
    .
    AJP Taylor atleast had the courage to defend Nazi Germany, but did so with both more ammunition and more intellectual rigour than any of the Russian apologists here. But in essence he was still wrong. At least with Nazi germany there were numerous greviences being published by Germans other Nazis about their lot prior to Hitlers ascension to power. This war was Putins choice, not Russia’s or Ukraine’s. So the answer will probably be found in Putins diaries if he keeps them, or in interviewing his inner circle.

    • Podargus says:

      Thanks, Occidental for your sensible comment.
      No doubt several Western nations had intelligence operatives in Kiev in 2014. Nothing surprising in that. There were Russian FSB people there as well, probably in greater numbers. But to claim that any of them had much, if any, influence on the many thousands of Ukrainian activists is stretching belief. There were scores of fatalities and injuries on the activist side inflicted by the forces in the pay of the then president.
      But they forced the president to cut and run to the Russians from the obscene luxury of his palace.
      So it was a popular revolution which happily succeeded. So what?

    • Sindri says:

      Excellent post.

    • PT says:

      I don’t doubt that Moscow (ie Putin) used “influence” to affect the result of the Ukraine election. But equally it’s quite clear that a certain non-pro Russian clique in Ukraine sort to purchase Biden’s backing – that’s the clear implication for making the otherwise unqualified and unfit Hunter Biden a Board Member of their State Gas company. I’m far better qualified technically than he is: but there’s no way I’d get the job. There’s only one thing that Hunter has for the job, his father’s position!
      .
      Regarding NATO expansion to Georgia etc. it’s clear what that was about. The grossly overrated Mike Moore made a big deal about the possibility of Kazak oil pipeline running through Afghanistan (and bypassing Iran) but missed the fact that the line was subsequently built on the east-west access. The extension of NATO membership was clearly about establishing western military control over this strategic artery, and with it the primacy of western political influence. There is no sense otherwise of admitting Georgia to NATO, unless the ultimate aim is to admit Russia itself (and with it Japan, and Australia and ultimately India to curtail China). In 2008 they weren’t looking that far ahead, it was to safeguard the pipeline. Oil is often overstated as a cause of conflict and geopolitics, but it was clearly the cause here. And it shows the limitations. Georgia was far more important to Russia than it was to the US. Hence why the reaction to Russia was so feeble.
      .
      I fully understand why Poland and indeed the Baltic States would fear Russian power and seek the protection NATO membership provides. I don’t blame them. But expanding NATO in such a way would clearly be seen as hostile by the Russians. It’s not justifying Putin’s invasion to point that out. Expanding NATO into these areas does mean encompassing these long standing issues and western leaders need to be aware of them, or else we’ll all get burned.

  • Phillip says:

    Thank you Augusto, another excellent and accurate essay. The festering puss that is the USA, the CIA, its neocons fuelled and propelled by the corrupted immoral filth of the Obama Biden administration is the cause of the worlds instability. The sooner the USA is shutdown from its continual international interference then the sooner peace will fall upon the planet. Dr Ben Abelow justifies with truth why the Ukraine war exists. The facts hurt some of the ignorant.

  • Homer J says:

    So many people, including this author, misunderstand the function of NATO. NATO ist a defence alliance, not an attack or invasion army. In it’s entire history, NATO never invaded or attacked other countries. It’s purpose is to DEFEND other NATO members in case of invaders like Putin. It’s really that simple. Who is Putin to tell NATO who can and can’t join? NATO had to reject the offer. Here is an idea for peace in Europe. How about Russia signs an agreement not to attack ANY countries west of the Russian border?

  • Brian Boru says:

    I don’t remember reading any reference to President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign an EU association agreement prior to the protests in Kiev. Hadn’t he promised that as a policy to promote his election? Now why would that not have been mentioned?
    .
    The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of 1984 was also not mentioned. Again I wonder why?
    .
    I must admit to much ignorance on this issue but the fact is Russia invaded and that is intolerable if we are to have any world order.
    .
    The question of the Russian speaking borderlands and how the aspirations of those peoples were manipulated by violent pro Russian provocateurs and then handled by Kiev is probably yet another almost text book example of how to start a war. Again, something not mentioned in this article.
    .
    It’s s all happened before and there are many current instances of peoples wanting independence against the territorial integrity of the countries in which they reside. The problem is that the International Community has no solution to that other than leaving it to the parties involved to adopt peaceful means.

  • Jack Brown says:

    It might be termed semantics but Russia was not ‘provoked’. Rather Putin’s fears and anxieties were played upon to put him in a position of stress. So ‘lured’ or ‘goaded’ would be a better word.
    .
    The talking heads promoting this theory were spokesmen for the RAND Corporation, the CIA think tank which was commissioned by the US military to develop what was released in 2019 as the “Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground”.
    .
    It is in the public domain at
    https://www.rand.org › pubsPDF
    RAND Corporation
    Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
    .
    RAND spokemen wearing suits and ties outline the bait on the official RAND YT channel

    https://youtu.be/XbAJwyIThMs?si=qCxs96z3PfdN6E0b
    .
    On that video we see Raphael Cohen but as Rafi in slacks and open neck shirt he is much more open on the official Defense and Aerospace Report channel in a video captioned “RAND’s Cohen on Extending Russia Ways to Stress Moscow”

    https://youtu.be/nJdbAUJIcGY?si=z95kFMKXmH4zMJat
    .
    Rafi is quite plain that RAND saw Ukraine is of limited significance to the US but a handy theatre of psychological warfare against Putin.

  • Sindri says:

    It’s difficult to know where to begin but let’s start with just one glaring non-sequitur. The opening premise is: Ukraine supporters claim, wrongly, that the invasion was “unprovoked”, but no! Why, Putin proffered a draft treaty requiring no NATO enlargement, and we didn’t sign it! Therefore we provoked it!
    Really.

  • Sindri says:

    And then we get the dismal trio of Sachs, Kennan and Mearsheimer, all of whom, especially the latter, confuse cause and justification. Even assuming that the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO was a cause of the invasion (it wasn’t, as Putin’s rambling essay on the subject of Ukraine makes clear), that doesn’t mean that Ukraine ought not to be a member of NATO, morally, strategically or for any other reason.

  • Phillip says:

    So what have all the pathetic US sanctions done to control or weaken Russia, Iran, China, North Korea ? Nothing. The entire mentality of the US is a failure on the policy front. Putin has just created stronger bonds with North Korea and Vietnam. The longer the US continue propping up the Ukraine issue, the closer the idiots of the USA bring themselves to military conflict with the likes of BRICS…forget the little G7 dreamers and the NATO suckers, they have no chance against the military systems of these Russian alliances.
    The solution is to shut the US boofheads out. The Biden admin must be eliminated first.

    • Watchman Williams says:

      Agree entirely. This war, like other post WW2 conflicts, fuels the vital US armaments industry and provides necessary battlefield experience for research on weapons development.
      Incidentally, President Kennedy drew a line in the sand over Soviet missiles in Cuba, invoking the Monroe Doctrine. Russia is now implementing what can be called the “Putin Doctrine”, which has the same basic objective of avoiding the establishment of hostile missile sites in neighbouring countries..
      The US is on a fast track to self destruction and is taking the West with it.

      • Sindri says:

        The Monroe doctrine was about the stationing of nuclear missiles. It’s a common misconception that when you join NATO, your border suddenly bristles with nukes. There have not been nuclear missiles in any NATO country bordering the Soviet Union or Russia since 1962. The idea that NATO would put nuclear missiles in Ukraine is fanciful. So there’s no comparison between the Monroe Doctrine and the supposed “Putin Doctrine”.

        • Jack Brown says:

          Seeing as the Monroe Doctrine was first articulated by President Monroe in 1823, two centuries ago, and which predated nuclear weapons by 122 years one can’t say it pertained to the stationing of nuclear weapons.

          The Wikipedia entry for the doctrine she Monroe Doctrine is a United States foreign policy position that opposes European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere. It holds that any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers is a potentially hostile act against the United States.”

          Therefore there is some equivalence between the Monroe Doctrine and what is said to be the Putin Doctrine.

          • Sindri says:

            Perhaps, but Cuba was pretty much a colony of the Soviet Union, dependent on it economically and the USSR’s activities there certainly qualified as “intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers”. Yet it was the stationing of nukes there that threatened a military confrontation.
            I grant you the Bay of Pigs fiasco, but that was in 1961. 60+ years on, there is no moral or factual equivalence between anything the US is doing in its own region and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. It’s a piece of aggression that can’t be justified.

  • James McKenzie says:

    See https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=putin+2015+putin+2021&&mid=6F4CF73ED1FADEEAFEDA6F4CF73ED1FADEEAFEDA&&FORM=VRDGAR: what soured it? Saw another clip before the invasion where clearly Putin warned publicly not to expand into Ukraine: though unable to source. I’m sicken of this unnecessary conflict.

  • Bron says:

    Homer J
    This contributor has an excellent point. NATO was created to defend member nations not to threaten Russia.
    It’s OK to rubbish USA but who will we
    to when Australia is threatened? Remember that the great democracies of Germany and Japan exist because USA’s help. Anybody remember the Marshall Plan?. Americans died defending Australia in the second World War. And yet we hear the Putin fan club talking about USA mistakes as if other countries are perfect. My mother was liberated in Nazi Germany by an African American battalion of US troops and she said she’d never seen such strong handsome soldiers. People forget what brave US troops have done.
    On a separate point Podarcus I detect a hint of racism in your description of Putin having Mongoloid features. The Mongols spread westward to Hungary and Poland before stopping at German, raping and pillaging all the way. Asiatic features are present in people’s from both countries. Slanty eyes in some of these young women are considered very sexy. Putin is another matter. But why did the Mongols not continue into Germany and France? Interesting. Less attractive raping opportunities? Sorry, I take that back. Apparently there was a funeral back home.
    Pity we can’t have one for Putin.

    .

    • Podargus says:

      Bron, search “Golden Horde” which was the Russian name for the Mongol Khanate which controlled the greater part of what is now modern Russia between the 13th and 16th centuries.
      Plenty of time to leave a permanent influence on those lands and to interbreed with the native population.
      Re racism – I don’t mind in the least being called a racist. Race is a reality and it is very often closely associated with culture. And culture is the killer.

    • Sindri says:

      Your mum, I presume Jewish, was liberated from Nazi internment by African-American troops? That’s the trifecta, the Nazi apologist’s nightmare! Please, a trigger warning Bron for one or two of the posters here.

  • ChrisPer says:

    Remind me of bullies everywhere. “Look what you made me do!”
    I agree that the US apparently has bloody idiots running their foreign policy, and may contribute to instability in the way described; but Russia had the power to refrain from a shooting war on its neighbours while running all its usual manipulations and building toward everything they want ‘behind the scenes’.

  • Ian MacDougall says:

    Podargus:
    One is not a racist for recognising the different, races, ethnicities or call-them-what-you-will of humankind. It is only by asserting that members of one of those categories are superior in some way to all the others that a true racist can self-identify as such.
    Physical anthropologists have sorted humanity into the following categories: 1. Australoids, 2. Caucasoids, 3. Mongoloids and 4. Negroids. (NB This list is in alphabetical order only.)
    However, the features which set races, ethnicities or call-them-what-you-will of humankind arguably all have a natural purpose, and have been selected in by Nature for that reason. Examples include the ‘Mongolian fold’ of skin over the eyes to ward off snow blindness in those who have it, particularly during glaciations; melanin in the skin helps prevent sunburn and worse for those living in sunny climes, etc.

  • Bron says:

    Sindri
    My mother was not Jewish.
    Podargus
    Putin looks like a typical Slav, maybe a touch of Daniel Craig about him. No obvious Mongoloid features.

  • Sindri says:

    A propos of nothing in particular, today, less than 24 hours after a strike on the National Technical University of Oil and Gas in Ivano-Frankivsk, and 40 hours after a strike by an Iskander-M ballistic missile on food warehouses in Kryvyi Rih, there was a Russian strike at the intersection of Vernardskoho Street and the Gagarina Avenue in the centre of Kharkiv. At least three people were killed and at least 56 injured, of whom 16 were hospitalised and 4 are critical.
    These disgusting, savage attacks on civilians are happening every day, courtesy the grubby little KGB hack Putin. It shames Quadrant to publish nonsensical, incoherent articles like this one.

    • Brian Boru says:

      Sindri. I share your deep feelings about the “disgusting, savage attacks on civilians (that) are happening every day, courtesy the grubby little KGB hack Putin”. I have been doing a slow burn of outrage inside since it started.
      .
      However I can not share your view about Quadrant publishing such articles. Quadrant is all about cultural freedom. I have criticized this one sided article which has followed the failed appeasement line that is the antithesis of freedom. My view though is that it is better to debate poor cases than to ban them. When we debate, as you often do so well, our cause is enhanced.
      .

      • Sindri says:

        Yes, I wish I could hit the delete button on the last sentence. I have friends in Ukraine who daily live in fear of these attacks on civilians. One of them is a native Russian speaker whose views about Putin are unprintable.

        • Sindri says:

          And before anyone says “what about Gaza”, the Ukrainian government does not store munitions and weapons at schools, hospitals and residential buildings, creating human shields and inevitably causing civilian casualties.
          Neither does Zelensky live in luxury in Qatar.

  • Bernie Masters says:

    The article conveniently ignores the fact that Putin is a ruthless dictator and he has done an excellent job of threatening the Russian people into submission or falsely convincing them that Russia was under some sort of threat. The reality of course is that NATO is/was not a threat to Russia and there would never be a NATO-lead invasion of Russia. I accept that his ego had been dented by the 2014 change of government in Ukraine from pro-Russia to pro-West but Russia has been doing many things contrary to the interests of the West – sending troops to various developing countries to assist other dictators to remain in power as well as assassinating people both inside and outside Russia who Putin did not like. So, yes, the West provoked Russia to a certain degree but a leader less paranoid than Putin would not have done the things he did in the decades prior to the 2014 Ukraine invasion and would not have felt as threatened as he did by a defensive, non-aggressive NATO.

  • PeterS says:

    I’m sorry but Ukraine’s neutrality simply means Russian domination. When in recent history has Russia ever respected the political neutrality of another country. Putin’s words about Ukraine always being part of Russia and his belief that Russia was born in Kyiv give an indication of Russian intentions. Taken together with his stated intention to wipe Ukraine off the map shows how much Russia can be trusted. Anyway, who invaded whom and what does Ukraine want? Until the invasion of 2022 there was no chance of Ukraine joining NATO. Hungary for onnwould never have countenanced it.

  • PeterS says:

    Further to my last; the Budapest memorandum allows that the US the UK and Russia guarantee the security of Ukraine. Russia’s idea of security is invasion!! The US and the UK on the other hand are doing their bit to secure Ukraine.

  • Searcher says:

    It seems that Trump made a regrettable mistake in continuing the Obama policy line, so as to have the US sell lethal weapons to Ukraine.

  • Ian MacDougall says:

    Spare a thought, for the moment, for Vlad Putin (not to be confused with Vlad Dracula, though completely understandable I admit.) The traditional Russian reward for being a political failure is, if you’re lucky, a long stretch in some Siberian gulag. And if not so lucky, a bullet in the back of the head down in the basement of the Lubyanka.
    Vlad Putin could be displaying paranoia, but more likely realism. He has trained seriously at judo, and sits in his Kremlin office at one end of what has to be the longest desk in the world, as if ready for anything. He probably has buttons galore under his desk ready to summon his KGB gorillas-at-arms. Conceivably also, THE button, so that as his last act, and when all else fails, he can take the world down with him.
    Had Hitler had such a button in his Fuehrerbunker in Berlin in 1944, he would certainly have pressed it before blowing his own brains out as he did. Berlin to a brick.

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